Much of the podcasting hype is fueled by unrealistic views about the impact of technology.
Time and time again, futurists and techno-pundits have predicted that widespread availability of content creation and distribution technologies would unleash the creative powers of the masses and democratize media.
The radio-vision machine, transmitting and receiving living and moving objects, will come to the fireside as a fascinating teacher and entertainer, without language, literacy or age limitation... [C. Francis Jenkins, 1925]
While such optimistic hopes of a benevolent, enriching technology were shared by many, industry executives like David Sarnoff realized that the same economics of advertising and content that fueled radio would triumph in the world of television.
I remembered when the Internet was born and the first time I sat down with Mosaic in 1993. I believed it myself then: that the lines between rich and poor would blur and the democracy of media was on the horizon. Today ADSL assures that consumers receive content and cannot serve it. Hosting centers are dominated by expensive arrays of equipment to serve the truly successful sites such as Amazon, and CNN. Blogging compartmentalizes, rather than frees, the content creator, much as Yahoo Groups and Geocities eventually established "lower expectations" for visitors by collecting the average ramblings of the average person in one "safe" place.
Podcasting is no different. Initially, fueled by true visionaries, it was not only new, but a reasonable proportion of content was engaging. Popularity of the medium has diluted the value of the content, and soon hundreds of thousands of podcasts will end up in their own compartments on Yahoo, iTunes, and other aggregators.
Good content and good entertainment don't rely upon technology. They rely upon talent. No matter what technology is present, talented individuals will find ways of expressing themselves. Podcasting is not creating more talented individuals, rather it will create so much clutter than the truly talented individuals will succeed only if they can afford to. As licensing and regulatory issues are put to rest, it will be new podcasting media giants who are the most successful. Some of these will clearly be new giants. Good shows like Coverville have staying power, and "being there first" will create opportunities for many. Sirius has already seen the light, and as soon as the dust settles, the few, not the many, will emerge triumphant.
But to hear the words of many of these "pioneers", a new world is being born where anyone can now be a radio star.
Just as digital distribution made it possible for anybody to be a successful musician.
Everything, everything, starts with a mystique and ends in politics. The founders come first and then come the profiteers. [Charles Peguy, 1888]
[tags: podcasting]

I think the problem with your argument here, and it's a common one, is that you think podcasting is about "good content and good entertainment". I don't. I think podcasting is more like the TELEPHONE than RADIO. It's about having conversations. Do you think that good conversations are about "talent"? Or just about people talking about things that are important to them?
And one more thing - digital distribution IS allowing WAY more musicians to find a larger audience. Try listening to the TPN Rock Show (www.thepodcastnetwork.com/rock) or the TPN Blues and Jazz Show (http://bluesandjazz.thepodcastnetwork.com). Lots of great music from people I would never had heard of prior to podcasting.
Posted by: Cameron | December 09, 2005 at 11:07 PM